The Planning Fallacy: Why Everything Takes Longer Than Expected
You decide to renovate your house. The contractor says the work will be completed in two months. You calculate the expenses, arrange the money, and start imagining how your home will look after the renovation. Everything seems manageable. Two months pass. The flooring is still incomplete. The electrician needs another week. The kitchen fittings have not arrived, and the contractor has discovered a few additional expenses. Suddenly, your two-month renovation has become a six-month project. The same thing happens with wedding budgets, office projects, college assignments, business launches, and personal goals. We confidently estimate how much time and money something will require, only to discover that reality has a different plan. Why does this happen so frequently? Are we simply bad at planning, or is there something deeper happening inside the human mind? Psychologists have a name for this behaviour: the Planning Fallacy . It describes our tendency to underestimate how long a ...